The significance of a quick burst of speed, or sustained move, at any point in a race cannot be overemphasized. In fact, most winners, of most races between 5-1/2 and 9 furlongs have shown such a ‘burst’ or move in one of their last two races within the past 45 days.
But the problem for most handicappers is how to identify these moves, because at times they can be virtually invisible to the eye. And, at times, such a move may not be significant at all. How to tell the difference?
Well, thankfully, we have Tyler Hubert to sort that out for us. Tyler’s stints in the research departments at The Daily Racing Form and Today’s Racing Digest gave him the background to see through all the noise and pinpoint the kinds of bursts and moves that are predictive of an upcoming big effort.
Tyler tells us: ‘These moves are often by design — the trainer’s design, in order to set up a big race. And they can almost always be spotted in the pps, providing you have a formula that can measure these moves, and I believe that I have come up with a near fool-proof one.Most of these horses, provided they return to the races within 25 days or so, WILL run BIG.’
The RUSH is a super nifty way to spotlight horses whose recent bursts of speed, or ‘rushes’, have them on edge for a biggie.
“The Rush pinpoints significant moves, or ‘bursts’, as the author likes to call them, that are predictive of a big upcoming effort. We’ve never seen anything quite like this before, which likely explains why the method is so effective. Qualifying horses win and hit the board at a very high rate. Mr. Hubert has come up with something that will significantly increase the bettor’s trips to the cashiers windows.” Brett Collier, Systems & Methods Magazine
“‘Pace Makes the Race’ is one of the oldest sayings in the game, but unless one knows exactly how to measure the various pace components, it’s still just a saying. You need to find a way to measure certain aspects of pace and compare them to today’s likely pace scenario. This is accomplished brilliantly in Tyler’s The Rush – he is able to locate meaningful speed and pace anomalies that inevitably lead to a powerful performance. The Rush is definitely worth your attention.” Tom Console, Handicapping author
“I immediately recognized the value of The Rush after looking at just a dozen or so races. Finding that the vast majority of the qualifiers hit the board led me to explore another couple hundred races and, lo and behold, the super consistent results held up. Just when I thought I had seen everything in this game, along comes Tyler Hubert with something I would call ‘revolutionary’. Thanks again for letting me test The Rush.” Darryl Stevens, Brooklyn, NY (beta tester #3)
A Pace Twist Here, A Speed Twist There
So basically, what Tyler has done, is to identify ‘bursts’ of speed, as well as pace ‘deviations’, i.e., scenarios where the horse may have overcome a pace disadvantage. He then found a way to attach actual numbers, or ‘ratings’, to these performances and then added in trainer/jockey stats as well as a unique Class component he calls the WIZ: all culminating in a Powerful Performance Evaluation number for each qualifying runner.
‘I have been working in statistics for most of my life.’ Tyler tells us, ‘and from 1996 to 2016 I dealt strictly with Thoroughbred Horse Racing stats in my work with The Daily Racing Form and Today’s Racing Digest. When you have access to literally millions of past performance lines, and you are mathematically oriented and love horse racing to boot, you have basically just entered your Handicapping Fantasyland, where the sky is the limit on what you are able to study and create.
‘After evaluating hundreds of thousands of actual races, it became abundantly clear to me that the cornerstones of any successful handicapping method were Speed & Pace, but you could not use just the raw numbers that everyone reading the pps had access to. You have to find the ‘invisible’, so to speak, meaning that only if you could read ‘between the lines’ could you come up with speed and pace considerations that basically very few players had access to.’
“The Rigorous Qualifying Process is what Makes The Rush!So Darned Accurate!”
Bob Shurig, author, The Safe & Sure System
The Rush!deals with multiple speed and pace factors.Measurements include the actual fractions and final times of the race; the actual fractions and final times of each horse; algorithms that compare each horse’s fractions to ‘par’ for today’s distance at today’s track; final fraction calculations that include beaten lengths, etc., etc.
And then, Trainer & Jockey individual and team %s, Form measurements and a super accurate Class formula.
>>From Tyler: ‘So, basically, when a horse qualifies and rates among the top tier of contenders, you are almost always going to see a Strong to Powerful Performance.These horses have a LOT going for them, and often escape the notice of the general public.’
Let’s Take a Look:
As you know, we do extensive database studies that clue us into where a particular methodology works best. Below you can see that the hit rates and ROIs were extremely solid in Claiming races (35.71 hit rate – 27.1% ROI) and Maiden races (42.86% win rate and +26.43 ROI). The key to this study is that these %s held when the race had at least 70% of the horses showing as qualifiers, which gives the programs algorithms a better chance to discern the various point-factor differences .
The Rush is a logic-based program but still gets some great overlays. Note that The Rush also produces its own ‘value line’ – a much more accurate gauge of a horse’s actual chances as opposed to the morning line. Here the value line put Sir Alfred at 4/5 – so the $18.80 payoff was a HUGE overlay.
THE RUSH screen contains a lot of information, dissecting fractions (FR) beaten lengths (POC= point of call and margins or beaten lengths. POC2MD = 2nd call and the lengths behind the leader for this horse – in the above example you can see that Sir Alfred James was 3-1/2 lengths off the pace at this call). When you scroll to the right you will see additional info:
You can see that this continues with the calls and margins of the runners. BURSTS are the quick moves or sustained moves that a horse may make at several points in the race – these are rated on a point scale from the best, or most effective BURST, to the worst or no burst at all. The B2DIFF, B3DIFF, etc., measure turn times. Jockey and Trainer considerations are also enumerated and Tyler’s WIZ is his unique read on Class.
You, of course, don’t have to even look at all this info if you are not inclined — the program is doing all the work for you — but what this demonstrates to you is the extreme sophistication of this program.
Some Interesting M/L Odds Research Stats
When we do our database research we look into multiple aspects/fields including class, distance, age, post position, odds, etc.
Below note the study on morning line odds. This study is called a ‘pic’ or picture, in that it takes a limited number of representative races at several tracks, calculates the average number of races in a certain category over a 3-to-5 day period and then combines them into a ‘picture’ of overall results.
The morning line odds study showed very solid hit rates and ROIs in several odds categories. Top Pick Morning Line means the horse that was picked in the Top Burst Box – when the M/L odds were 3/1, for example, 29.17% won with a small +4.58% ROI. 3.5 or 7/2 had a 48% hit rate and +40.60% ROI. And some of the higher m/l odds produced huge returns as well.
Since this is an overall study of several tracks it would be best to check these odds ranges at your track on paper, but these ‘pic’ stats often hold up over the long haul.
So with The Rush You Have a Methodology that:
>>Takes a New Approach to Speed & Pace Handicapping by:
>>Analyzing every Pace Call for Every Horse by Numerically Calculating BURSTS of Speed, Sustained Moves & Last Fraction Anomalies
>>Comparing Race Times and Individual Horse Times to Par Times for today’s distance at today’s track – faster than par times result in a boost in points — slower than par results in penalties
>>Analyzing Trainer & Jockey Performance both Individually and as Teams
>>Providing a Unique Class Rating that indicates when a horse has recently been competitive at a higher Class Level
>>Creates its own Value Line based on dozens of factors that accurately Predict the True Chances of an Entrant. The Value Line is far superior to the line the average track morning linemaker provides.
The Rush!, very simply, provides the Player with a Tool and Insights that few other handicappers possess. It will uncover plays that you previously would have just skipped over. And, it is very reasonably priced and fully guaranteed.
Call us at 1-800-696-0067 or order from our website
And remember that you can take advantage of our No Interest Payment Plan – 3-payments 30 days apart for orders over $100, or 2-payments for under that amount.
Thank You and please call us with any questions you may have. Tyler, Dave & Len