Description

 

 

 

 

 

🤫INTERESTING NOTE:  Did you know that Al Illich served in World War 1 in Britain, and gained his knowledge of equine form and condition while playing polo during down time.  He learned to analyze ‘form’ simply by looking at a horse’s overall stature and would pick the pony to compete on based on that knowledge.  He later translated these insights to judging thoroughbred form based on recent activity patterns, an important consideration in his Universal Flat Ratings System.

 

Bottom Line Stats:  Average win rate on Best Bests  34.4%.  Average win mutuel $9.16.  Best Bets run at least 3rd close to 81% of the time.

 

Screen Shots

 

Oaklawn and Bourbon Society negotiates a wide trip to pop at $19.60

Keeneland:  Dispersion rolled to an $18.18 victory.  You will get a lot of winners, as well as place horses, in these price ranges.

 

Universal Flat suggestions often hit the board so backing up to place and show is a good idea.  Cinister Cix, below, just missed at 18/1.

AQU:  A lone selection is often a super strong contender.  Focusyn wired ’em to the tune of $9.36.

Laurel:  You will also get a lot of ‘logical’ selections in the 8/5 to 5/1 range.  Paco The Taco Man made it look easy at $7.80.

Xcel at Aqueduct made not bones about it.  $10.60 was a great payoff, especially given his big edge in the TOT column.

 

 

 

 

Another good reason to back up your selections to place and show.  The Hell We Did lost by a head at 8/1.

 

Aqueduct:  Note that there are no program picks below, but when you sort the SNAP column Take Me To Londyn jumps to the top and returned a nice $8.34 for the win.  See further explanation of this feature on the Heeere’s Johnny example below.

 

Laurel:  $10.20 for a top pick who had at least a 2-point edge in the TOT column.

 

NEW SNAPSHOT RATING COLUMN!  We have now taken the information from our Snapshot feature page and added a column to the front page so you can measure the strength of each contender.  This feature can be especially  helpful to verify the strength of the program screen picks, or can point out the major contenders when there are no program picks.  Note below that Heeere’s Johnny had the top SNAP Column rating — He won at $8.42.👇

“Len’s SNAP column is impressive. It provides a kind of universal measure, showing even when UF gives no rating.” D. Schmitt, California

 

The Columns

R = # of races analyzed by the program.

Last = days since last race.

M/L = morning line.

SNAP = the new Snap Column ratings derived from our popular Snapshot screen feature.

TOT = total points earned from the columns to the right.

CLM1 = Recent form in lower level claiming races.

CLM2 = Recent success in higher level claiming races and Allowance races.

WIN1 = win % in races of today’s type and distance.

PLC1 = place/show % in races similar to todays

WGT1 = looks for success under today’s weight or higher in similar races.

WGT2 = looks for races where runner had two or more pounds less than high weight in the race and ran at least 3rd.

WIN2 – measures speed and dynamic pace relative to the other runners in today’s race.

CLM3 = searches for positive Form patterns in recent claiming races.

Three final columns (when you scroll over) = a combination algorithm involving speed, pace, current form

 

 

>>>>See Text from the FLAT RATE User’s Manual Below

 

 

Universal Flat Rate User’s Manual

Important Points Covered in this Manual:

Why Universal Flat Ratings Work

Using the New Snapshot Rating Column

What to do when both Selections in the Bottom Boxes are at Very Big Odds

Best Overall Return Situations We Discovered in our Data Base

Why Universal Flat Ratings Work

When Al Illich first became interested in the handicapping game, it was only after he had become a successful owner and buyer of horses privately and at auction. He did not realize at the time that his main focus, when eyeing a potential runner, was on ‘Form’, i.e., the overall appearance and movement of a horse. He had actually largely ignored the mutuel end of the game.

But when he realized that with his knowledge of what nowadays they call a horse’s ‘body language’, he could figure which horse(s) were likely to run best TODAY. So he created a couple of methods based on current form that could be determined largely from past performance lines. When doing this he realized that there was a whole lot more he could do with the pps, and with the help of a handicapper friend dove into the realms of speed and pace and other critical handicapping considerations.

While in the Army, Al was a ‘system analyst’. No computers, etc., back then, but his job was to analyze weapon flows form manufacturers worldwide and project where, and of what type, weapons were likely going to the enemies of the European coalition.

So Al’s analytical mind made him a perfect fit for the vagaries and twists of the handicapping game. His mathematical expertise also allowed him to create his Winmore Bankroll strategy, which he designed to enable the player, by following his instructions, to make a decent ROI even with a relatively low win % and low average mutuels. Al says over and over again in his writings ‘Knowing how to play/wager, is as important as knowing which horse to play.’

So Al experimented with dozens of factors over the next few years and culminated in what to this day is one of the most accurate overall methodologies ever, his book called ‘How to Pick Winners’.

While there is so much more to the overall methodology, and so much more programmed in by Len, just a reading of what the functions the various columns below perform shows you just how involved and complete this method is and why it performs so well.

 

 

The Columns

R = # of races analyzed by the program.

Last = days since last race.

M/L = morning line.

SNAP = the new Snap Column ratings derived from our popular Snapshot screen feature.

TOT = total points earned from the columns to the right.

CLM1 = Recent form in lower level claiming races.

CLM2 = Recent success in higher level claiming races and Allowance races.

WIN1 = win % in races of today’s type and distance.

PLC1 = place/show % in races similar to todays

WGT1 = looks for success under today’s weight or higher in similar races.

WGT2 = looks for races where runner had two or more pounds less than high weight in the race and ran at least 3rd.

WIN2 – measures speed and dynamic pace relative to the other runners in today’s race.

CLM3 = searches for positive Form patterns in recent claiming races.

Three final columns (when you scroll over) = a combination algorithm involving speed, pace, current form.

 

NEW SNAPSHOT RATING COLUMN!  We have now taken the information from our Snapshot feature screen and added a column to the front page so you can measure the strength of each contender.

What Len has done is translate the standings on the Snapshot Screen to numerical ratings in a column on the main screen (the Snapshot screen is available on all of our software – look to the top left of the screen and note the heading called ‘SNAPSHOT’ — click on the number of the horse you want to view and the screen for his stats will appear).

This new feature can be especially helpful to verify the strength of the program screen picks, or can point out the major contenders when there are no program picks.  Note above that Heeere’s Johnny had the top SNAP Column rating — He won at $8.42.

So if you have time it would not hurt to always sort the SNAP Column on the main screen to see which horses score best. If the picks in the selection boxes at the bottom of the screen also have high SNAP numbers, so much the better.

What to do when both Selections in the Bottom Boxes are at Very Big Odds

 

At times you will see both horses in the bottom boxes at high morning line odds, between 15/1 and 30/1. Now, often, neither of these runners will run better than 3^rd, and this situation often suggests a very wide open race. So often it is best to use these horses only underneath in your exotics. However, if one of these horses has one of the top three SNAP Column numbers, or is only one point lower than the top scorer in the TOT column, consider him for an across the board wager.  

 

Best Overall Return Situations We Discovered in our Data Base

 

AQU:  A lone selection is often a super strong contender.  Focusyn wired ’em to the tune of $9.36.

Win/Place % for these runners is 60.7%

 

A lone top pick that also has the only positive # in TOT is also a very consistent performer.

 

 

A top pick that has at least a 3-point advantage in TOT wins at 37.6% rate. Play if at odds of 5/2 or higher.

 

Other situations:

 

Two horses in bottom boxes and top horse is at better odds than second pick, play top horse across board 2 units win/5 units place/9 units show.

 

Two horses in bottom boxes and top pick is at higher odds, play top horse same as above.

 

Two horses in bottom boxes and 2^nd pick is 5 or more times higher in odds than top pick, play top pick same as above.

 

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