🤔PACE:  Of Utmost Importance, but a Downright Mystery to the Majority of Fans

There are literally hundreds of bits of information involved in successfully picking the winner of a horse race.  The casual fan sees horseracing as just a random bunch of animals breaking from the starting gate and running around the track.  He/she is totally unaware of the myriad pre-race and during-the-race factors that determine the ultimate outcome.

However, when one surveys groups of Professional and semi-pro handicappers, those with more than just a basic knowledge of the game, asking them what they feel is the most important of all the variables in the race game, eight out of 10 will answer ‘PACE’.  Their opinion is that most races, especially sprints, are determined by how the race plays out via lone frontrunners, or many frontrunners, or a pace ‘presser’, two or more pace pressers, etc.

>>Again, while many other factors enter into the equation, if you are able to get the likely pace scenario correct, you are halfway, or more, home. 

But it’s painstakingly hard work to determine: which horse(s) will likely break from the gate first, or the likelihood of a pace battle; or if a ‘Lone F’ trip is likely by one of the speedsters, or if the pressers will be close enough early to take advantage late, or is there perhaps so much pace in the race that it will set up for a ‘deep’ closer.  This can be exhausting, frustrating work.

>>>What is ‘Perfect Pace?’

Dr. Howard Sartin is known as the ‘Godfather of Modern Pace Handicapping’.  Along with colleague Tom Brohamer, who authored ‘Pace Makes the Race’, Dr. Sartin developed theories and methodologies that made pace the centerpiece of their handicapping acumen.  Dr. Sartin also wrote many, many thesis and papers prior to forming his company.  We  have several of these writings/musings and one, published in 1986 we believe, described what he called ‘Perfect Pace’.  It theorized that if one could get a good handle on a likely pace scenario, combining other factors, most particularly speed, but other considerations as well, in just the right order, the player’s hit rate would improve dramatically.  Interestingly, as far as we know, that was about as far as this theory went, as we don’t recall a ‘Perfect Pace’ software program from the Sartin group.

So our programmer, Len, who is always up for a challenge, developed the High-Percentage Pace/Speed Equation! based on this theory.  He used the ‘Total Pace’ concept (which he expanded on for his Pace Ace, Plus program), and then tested hundreds of handicapping factors that would enhance the Pace Scenario algorithm.  Judging by the excellent results, he landed on just the right combination!

“The High-Percentage Pace/Speed Equation is a perfect example of what a program that exploits ‘hidden’ pace is capable of.  I am very impressed with how often the top plays hit the board.  At Gulfstream last week on the weekend cards, 14 of the 16 total plays ran at least 3rd and several won and placed.  At Delaware on July 2 a lot of near misses, but get this: Race 2: 2nd at 10/1, Race 3: 2nd at 10/1, Race 4: 2nd at 4/1, Race 5: 2nd at 10/1, Race 7: 3rd at 5/1  Race 9: Win at 2/1 – – using Dr. Anthony’s Parlay Power Match, which is a modified parlay method, to place and show, I made a ton of money …. wonderful consistency!“  Ben Edwards, Pro Player, Miami, FL

Let’s look at some screen 💻shots. 

You will note that High-Percentage Pace works well at all tracks, small and large.  The program does not pick a lot of favorites, but when it does the win % is in the 42% range.  Overall the average mutuel for Percentage Pace Power Plays (the first box at the bottom of the screen) that have a 3 or more point edge in the TOT (Total) column is $9.87 with a win percentage close to 31%. 

And the in-the-money hit rate is also very high, with Top Plays running at least 3rd close to 81% of the time.  And the great thing is that many of these ITM horses are nice prices.  A big chunk of the runners that finished at least 3rd were at odds between 4/1 and 25/1.

The columns:  LAST = days since last race; M/L = morning line; TOT = total points horse received from the columns to the right.  -1SPEED = speed algorithm for most recent race speed; -2SPEED = same, but for second race back; ESPEED = Early speed configuration algorithm; LSPEED = Late Speed algorithm; TRAIN = trainer % algorithm.

NEW!  Power Rankings

➽➽We have now added how each horse ‘ranks’ in 10 very important handicapping areas.  I want you to look at the section inside the red rectangle – this is pretty neat!  You will see how this horse ranks, or compares, to others in the same race.  Categories are POWER Ratings; Last Odds; Last Speed; 2nd Last Odds; 2nd Last Speed; Jockey/Trainer Win %; Early Speed; Late Speed; Class (LKELLY); Earnings Per Race.

 And the Trainer Stats section at the bottom show you stats that apply to today’s race, the win and in the money % of the trainer and his overall ROI in the listed categories.

This is extremely helpful info, especially when you are trying to break ties or looking for other contenders for Daily Doubles, Pick 3s, etc..  Of course, you don’t have to use this feature at all if you don’t wish, but if you have the time it is definitely work looking at.