Background – this is a fascinatingly good read!

In Southern California, during the final couple of decades prior to the millenium, when it was the only game in town (no casinos, no sports betting), it was very common (almost daily) to see the same three gentlemen, usually in the Clubhouse, but often on the tarmac in front of the wire, in deep study over the Racing Form.

Two of the gentlemen were of medium height with graying hair, while the other was a tall, swarthy fellow who looked like like he was fresh off a Hollywood movie set.

Closer study revealed the personages of Dr. Howard Sartin, chewing on the ever-present six-inch cigar, Tom ‘Pace-Makes-the-Race’ Brohamer, and, the handsome fellow who stood 6′ 3″ …. Bert Norman.

While many fans of the game would perhaps wonder how Bert, a genius system creator, was a ‘fit’ with the other two, a famous book author and one of the first developers of pace-based computer software, as it turns out, the other two relied more on Bert’s expertise than their own.

Bert, you see, didn’t believe in complexity, and exotic pace-line formulations, etc.  He was truly an old-fashioned ‘seat of the pants’ type of player, who relied heavily on information from the same pps that were staring everyone else in the face  —  he just saw them in a different way. 

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Quoting Bert, ‘I was always good at mathematics and thus, at ‘logic’.  When I look at the past performances it’s like a jigsaw puzzle completing itself right before my eyes.  I know almost immediately who the main contender(s) are, the likely pace scenario and the top jock/trainer teams.

‘I also have a knack to know, almost immediately, if a race is playable or not.  I initially assumed everyone could see the same numbers, or combinations thereof, that I was looking at – but after seeing so many of my picks go off at big odds, when I thought they should be among the favorites, I realized I might indeed have been bestowed with a bit of ‘gift’ where the ponies were concerned.’

The Value of ‘Negative’ Elimination Handicapping

What Bert does in Maximus is employ what he calls ‘Negative Elimination’ Solution Handicapping.

While many systems produce selections based on positive handicapping factors, Bert’s theory promotes finding the horse(s) that show the fewest ‘negative’ qualities/factors.

👉👉You will note in the screenshots below that the horses with the LOWEST positive or highest negative scores in the TOT column are the selections. 

Bert says:  ‘My approach in Maximus, and in a few other of my methodologies, is to find the horse(s) who have the fewest ‘negative’ handicapping factors.  So I’m looking for a horse who is very hard to knock because he/she simply has done very little wrong recently, and who I simply cannot eliminate based on normal negative factors.

As you will see in Maximus!, this  approach may work equally as well as a method that focuses on positive factors, but the problem with those methods is that you often end up with the chalk, because just about everyone is approaching handicapping from a ‘positive factor’ standpoint. 

With Negative Elimination Handicapping, your prices will inevitably be higher, without sacrificing win/place/show hit-rate percentage.’