A ‘TOTAL PACE’ Program as well as a super-accurate SELECTION program!! See Screenshots!!
‘Pace makes the race’ is a tired old phrase.
Yes, sometimes pace does make the race, but often it does not.
Many of the systems and technologies that rely strictly on pace are often best used as ‘supplements’ to actual handicapping.
In otherwords, if a horse looks good on other handicapping considerations, a strong pace number strengthens that horse’s chances.
So the question becomes:
‘Is there a way to use purely pace numbers to not only accurately evaluate pace, but also to make actual selections that are profitable over the long run?’
To do this, we would have to find a way to make the pace numbers, i.e., the pace calls (each and everyone of them), ‘performance’ numbers as well as a pace numbers.
A ‘Performance Rating’ measures overall performance and projects how a horse will likely run against today’s competition.
How is this done? Well, listen up, as Tom Console provides us with an explanation of how his PaceAce formulation accomplishes this:
IMPORTANT – Please Read:
‘Most pace programs I’ve seen emphasize either the actual times the horse records at each fraction, or the actual fractions of each race (and the horse receives numbers generated by the race, regardless of where the horse ran early or finished).
And while either method provides you with reasonably good pace figures, ‘reasonably good’ is about as far as they go.
But you cannot handicap with these figures alone. Something else is needed to provide the handicapper with a measure of ‘comprehensive’ performance.
And, as it turns out, this only requires adding a few more ingredients into the pace ‘souffle’. A little background:
It was in the late 70’s, after reading Andy Beyer’s Picking Winners, that I first became intrigued by numerical ratings.
Andy’s contention in this handicapping classic was that only through the use of ‘speed’ figures, which measure a horse’s final time, could one hope to make a consistent profit at the track.
Ignore class, ignore weight, ignore pace, ignore the jockey and trainer; the Beyer figure was all that mattered.
I labored for days on end constructing Beyer-like par-time charts for the purpose of constructing track variants, which were a necessary component of the speed figures.
I studied the time charts and applied everything I learned in Picking Winners to my handicapping.
But my results were just mediocre.
I was frustrated by the fact that the speed figures were so darned inconsistent.
How does a horse earn a 66, then a 79, then a 66 again in the span of three races? Which race is he likely to run back to today?
Andy’s work had a lot of validity to it, but in my mind, there was something missing. There were too many other factors involved in the running of a race to rely solely on a horse’s final time.
I wanted a rating that would encompass final time, along with pace, track variant, track bias, etc.
I wanted to look at a more ‘complete’ picture, in other words, so I decided to pursue this avenue.
The eventual result was what I believe to be the most consistently accurate ratings available to the horseplayer. I called them my
“PaceAce Power Performance Ratings”
Speed Ratings vs. Performance Ratings
It’s important that you have an understanding of why performance ratings, like my PaceAce Ratings, are superior to speed numbers. Let’s look at the elements that comprise each:
1. Final Time adjusted by the Track Variant
1. Final Time compared to par for each class of animal
2. Final Fraction compared to par
3. 1/4 call compared to par
4. 1/2 call compared to par
5. Turn Time evaluation
6. Track Variant
7. Track Bias
8. Human/artificial intelligence (i.e., computer) Judgement
(for your info: pace in this program is measured in feet-per-second mode)
As you can see, Performance Ratings encompass many more essential elements than do Speed Ratings.
That’s why Performance Ratings are a much more logical way to gauge how a race, and the horses within that race, was run.
With the PaceAce technology, pace figures are honed to a fine edge by comparing a horse’s fractions to the average par time for that class of animal.
This formulation can provide the handicapper with an enormous edge.
This is the factor that separates the ‘pace-men’ from the ‘pace-boys’
Comparing a horse’s fractions to the par times for that level of competition can uncover some amazing plays.
Let’s say average time for the class level at the half-mile call is 45.4, but this horse is running 45.1 or faster fairly consistently.
Only a tiny % of the players have this knowledge, but this horse may very well have that ‘hidden’ pace edge that spells BIG win and exotic mutuels.
With PaceAce technology,
you will often spot a horse who is likely to reach the 1/2 or 3/4 pole much quicker than is obvious
from looking only at the past performances, which is all that most horseplayers do.
You will, therefore, possess knowledge that 95% of the players are ignorant of.
This PaceAce formulation awards points to a horse that consistently runs faster than par at various fractions for that class of animal, and penalizes horses who run slower than par for that class.
And remember, while we are using ‘fractions’ in the above paragraph as an example, actual measurements and par comparisons are computed in the feet-per-second mode.
PaceAce, Plus! A TRUE PACE Program
When Tom Console programmed his PaceAce formula into his WinMore Express Program, we began hearing from players who wanted to know if PaceAce was an individual program all by itself.
Many handicappers wanted a program by which they could measure ‘true’ pace, like in the old ‘Sartin’ tradition.
So we asked Tom if he could come up with a ‘pure’ pace program using his PaceAce formula.
“sure, but it will include a whole lot more. I’ll use PaceAce to not only produce the best and most accurate Pace numbers available, but will also provide ‘total pace’ figures and ‘multi-race, cumulative’ pace figures,” Tom said, “but it won’t be cheap!!”
“Understand that I am using what I call ‘multi-race, cumulative pace figures’. The pace ratings come from several representative races, not just one pace line, which most other pace methodologies and programs rely upon.
This ‘total’ pace approach, using averages of a horse’s running fractions, final fractions and turn times, insures accuracy.”
Also included in the PaceAce, Plus program are several ‘fitness’ components to insure that the top-scoring horse(s) in a given race are in top form.
A horse could have great pace numbers, but if his recent activity (races & workouts) is spotty, those numbers could be rendered meaningless.
PaceAce provides you with what we call ‘Raw’ Pace ratings converted to the feet-per-second mode.
While pace ratings alone are not a viable long-term selection method, the unadjusted, raw ratings can provide you with some dillies!
The key to success with ‘raw pace ratings’ is to 1) always consider the horse strongly as an across the board play if he is at odds of 8/1 or higher and,
2) if he is a short price (7/2 or less) never leave him out of your exotic plays, specifically Exactas, Trifectas and Superfectas. Some examples below:
Above is a great example of how Raw Pace can point the way to a boxcar winner. Often these horses leave the gate and never look back.
Our Magic Couple did just that to pay $67 for the win. Note that ‘Couple also had one of the ‘Best Early’ pace numbers, as well as one of the ‘Best Late’ pace numbers —
another clue to the likely wire-to-wire running style this horse exhibited.
Supremacy is tops in Raw Pace in this race at Presque Isle and rolls to the win to pay:
4 Supremacy 44.00 16.80 8.40 Exacta with Best Early horse #2 = $146.40
2 Big Blue Streaker 4.00 3.20
6 Ace Jordan 3.60
PaceAce, Plus has proven to be an incredible price-getter, as well as a hallmark of consistency. If you are not using PaceAce Plus, you are not only missing out on longshots like those listed here, but on racecard after racecard you will find the software picking 4 to 6 winners and multiple Exactas and Trifectas as well. And almost daily, several double-digit prices hit at tracks across the country. Look at these recent hits:
The interesting thing about this race is that The Black Cloud had a huge GAP, 10 full points, over the 2nd top scorer in the total Column and he was one of the Best Early horses. We previously reported that large gaps (4 pts or more) in the Final Fraction column were significant, and we now have statistical evidence that a similar gap is a big positive in the Total Column as well. Also, look at this:
When we pull up the 2nd-Call Pace Chart, we see that the #8 horse, The Black Cloud, has a significant enough advantage at this call to suggest he would be in front at this point in the race. And, he forgot to stop, romping home by almost 5 lengths. It is also significant that he had the 3rd highest score in the Final Fraction Column, which suggests that he had some stretch strength as well.
Finger Lakes, 6/17, Race 5
8 The Black Cloud 82.00 33.40 11.40
5 Sriracha 4.80 3.60
4 Playbigorgohome 2.30
It is also important to take a look at the whole picture when using any of our programs. The following race at Mountaineer is a good illustration.
The Raw Pace Leader is TheBankofnick, who at 12-to-1 was certainly worth a play. But look closer. Note that Valiant Way, who is a much bigger price, is the fastest FINAL horse and is one of the Best Early Horses. It is always wise to look at the top three or four pace leaders for price, and a simple glance at this screen would have most players giving at least a semi-serious glance at the #8 horse. The chart is below:
The PaceAce Plus Selector Box
The beauty of PaceAce is that is does not rely on pace ratings alone (although as you can see from the above, they can put a smile on your face often),
but also has a ‘built-in’ ‘Automator’ that looks at the entire selection procedure by adding in critical handicapping factors, trainer stats, ‘speed-matrix’ type speed ratings, etc.
The ‘Plus’ Play is a very consistent and high average win mutuel selector. Take a look below:
The ‘Plus’ Play here is No Tricks For Jack. While this horse did not qualify as a Raw Pace Leader, or Best Early or Best Late, PaceAce arrived at this runner based on both pace and Automator criteria.
He paid a nice $14.80 for the victory. Note also that one of the Best Early horses, #6, finished 2nd and the Exacta paid $62.
If you are playing the Exotics, all the horses that appear in the selection screens are to be considered.
And look at these beauties, back-to-back, at Hollywood Park:
Palm Island was totally ignored in the wagering, but Raw Pace told the tale here as he won and paid $60.80! The Plus Play, Proven Warrior, finished 2nd and the Exacta paid $137!
Palm Island $60.80 $9.40 $4.80 Exacta $132.20
Then, in the very next race:
Tale Of A Champion lights up the toteboard at $22.20!
We absolutely, positively guarantee that the Raw Pace Leader Box will lead you to win, place and exotic payoffs that you never, ever would have come up with on your own.
Tale Of A Champion $22.40 $7.20 $5.00 Daily Double $337.40
Same Day – Back-to-back Biggies at Monmouth:
Lady Samuri has the top total pace score (38) and is the Raw Pace Leader.
Lady Samuri $14.60 $5.80 $3.60
Perfect Jewel is the Raw Pace Leader and romps to light up the toteboard:
Perfect Jewel $40.80 $13.60 $6.00 Daily Double $214.80
BEST EARLY, BEST LATE
Ahh, here’s a nice feature.
How many times have you gnashed your teeth as the first part of you Exacta/Trifecta is in front, but from way back here comes this price horse who cheats you out of your payoff?
Well, if you knew which horses were the likely early leaders, and which horses were the best closers, you’d likely cash in on a few more of these wagers.
The Best Early/Best Late PaceAce feature shows you which two horses are the fastest early and which two come home the fastest.
Often you will see an early leader fade late, but still hit the board, as something from behind takes over late.
You will now know which horses in the race are the projected pacesetters, and which are the strongest closers.
Time and time again we have witnessed the horses listed in these boxes alone making up BIG Exactas, Trifectas and Superfectas. Check out the 4th at Evangeline on June 13:
Note that the Best Early/Best Late horses filled out the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta. Payoffs of $475.80 for a $2 Exacta $3,005.30 for a $1 Trifecta and $3,716.10 for a $1 Superfecta. The Raw Pace horse, #4 didn’t hit the board, but had you included that runner in your boxes as well, the ticket prices would be a little steep but look at those nice rewards!
2 Big Mouth Becca 40.20 17.20 9.40
3 Chocklate Pie 19.60 7.60
7 Sligomarker 5.00
$2.00 Exacta 2-3 475.80
$2.00 Quinella 2-3 150.60
$1.00 Trifecta 2-3-7 3,005.30
$1.00 Superfecta 2-3-7-1 3,716.10
The Pace Graph – A Picture is Worth…..
….a thousand dollars!
Well, that’s not exactly how the saying goes, but since we are talking about overlays sniffed out by PaceAce, our revision of that old saying is very likely to come to pass for players at just about every wagering level.
With PaceAce, Plus, you will be able to generate a ‘graph’ that allows you to compare all of the runners in a given race.
This graph will clearly show which runner(s) have an advantage at the various calls as well as the finish.
This feature provides you with ‘visual’ evidence of just how PaceAce, Plus projects how a race will be run.
Summary Page – All the Selections, Instantly!
We began the Summary Page Feature a couple of Software packages ago and it has quickly become one of the most popular features.
Just Click on the Show Summary Bet Sheet or Print Summary Bet Sheet button and you can view and/or print all of the days selections!
This way you don’t have to look at every race if you don’t have the time or inclination. All of the picks, for the whole day, right there in front of you at a click of your mouse!
Printed Version of Summary Page Below. This is a very typical PaceAce day:
From what we’ve seen so far, PaceAce, Plus not only
provides the user with incredibly accurate pace numbers,
which can be used to enhance any handicapping method,
but is a great stand-alone selection software all on its own.
You are going to like this one — a lot!!
So, in summary, PACE-ACE, Plus© is a uniquely formulated software powerhouse that measures feet-per-second at
every call and then crunches current par times to uncover ‘hidden’ pace factors that will often put you on horses you
previously never would have given a second look to.
PaceAce, Plus will retail for $244, but order early and your price is just $197.
***Better yet, get in on the combo deal of The Selectrix Key-Speed/Big 5 Software, a $137 retail item, and Pace Ace, Plus, for just $296!