Description
Making Weight Patterns/Algorithms WORK for YOU!
Funny. The other day in a restaurant, I heard the guy next to me say something about ‘back in the day’. Now this fellow may have been 35 at the most and the ‘day’ he was referencing was likely in the early 2000s.
Now, to most of us, since the average age of our customers is likely in the mid 60s to the mid 90s, ‘back in the day’ usually means somewhere between the 1950s and 1980s. This is especially true in our game, thoroughbred horseracing. Those were the days before computer handicapping took hold, and other than devices like the Kelco Class Calculator Slide Ruler, most of the handicapping know-how came via paper and pencil systems purchased through the mail.
👉👉And, of course, you will remember that many of these systems put a value on Weight, usually involving a reduction in weight or an apprentice allowance .
Fast forward to ‘today’, i.e., the last 15 years or so, the emphasis on a horse’s weight in handicapping has pretty much vanished, both in paper systems and in software. But our programmer, Len Cz, decided to use his AI database to attempt to create create meaningful weight pattern formulas that result in positive performances.
The first answer the database gave Len was that Weight, on its own, was not a good predictor of future performance. Rather, Weight could be a powerful factor if used correctly and other factors/algorithms are considered. So Len’s AI database produced the following formula to maximize the result of Weight when handicapping a runner/race:
WEIGHT WATCHERS AIHORSE Positive Return Algorithm:
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PPL3-Give the following points from last 3 races: 1ST-5, 2ND-10, 3RD-15, 4th-25, 5th-35. Subtract this from today’s weight.
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M3YO-Maiden races 3YO and up – A 3yo with an5 lb-weight break.
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LPL-Horse in PP finished ITM within 2.5 lengths at 114 or less. Horse is losing weight today.
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CLM-Third race off claim, drop in class from claiming race, less weight from claiming race, jockey has .12 win percent.
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DIST-Sprints bet highest weight, Routes bet lowest weight.
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M/L-Today’s weight minus morning line. Multiply by .67
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LAST-Weight same as last-20 points, less than last 10 points, more than last 5 point.
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PPL4-Add finishes for four last races. Add weights for four last races and divide by four. Add or subtract the weight gain or loss for today’s race from weight average. Subtract the first sum from the modified weight average. Divide this by 2.
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MIDW-All horses between 113 and 120 get points.
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LESS8-Horses with 8 pound weight break get points.
This stuff still blows my mind. While, of course, to successfully use AI to program for you, you first have to be at least a semi-genius at regular coding/programming, which Len definitely is. But then you have to also know the ins and outs of AI thoroughly, as the technology changes almost daily.
Some of the rules seem downright strange, like subtracting the morning line from the weight, multiplying a certain value by .67, etc., but this is the kind of precision that makes the difference between a winning program and losing program
Screen Shots
We’ll start with this one. Will you get prices like this often? No, of course not, but the fact that the program recognized a tricky move on Weight Off (see data above) tells you that the theory behind the software is indeed valid and this was just a 6-horse field.
The rule that applies here (all rules that produce the best overall ROI are included in the User’s Manual) is that if there are two horses in the bottom boxes and one is 3 to 4 times higher morning line odds than the other, play that one across the board. $95.80
In the very next race Mor Success, who was 12/1 on the morning line, was bet down to pay $8.60, fitting the same rule as Gimmel above. And get this, the $2 Daily Double from Gimmel to Mor Success returned $3,680.00! Hate to admit it, but while we hit the Exacta in the Gimmel race, we neglected to play the DD!! Dumb!!
A Nice win from Bourbon Society at Oaklawn at $19.60. Note that he had a big point advantage in the TOT column. Horses with a 25 point or higher advantage in the TOT column hit at a higher rate (38% win, 61% place, 83% show)
Laurel. R Averie Lynn went wire to wire to pay $16.80. WW is very effective in the lower level claiming ranks — $5,000 to $25,000.
Parx. Jeanne Marie rolls to a nice win in an expensive claimer at $10.60
Below a more typical WW selection. Most winners will be in the $5 to $14 range. Black Ginger fit the rule ‘if two horses are in the bottom boxes and the top pick is less than double the morning line odds than the other play the lower priced horse’. She paid $7.22.
Backing up longshot selections to place and show is very wise with WW. If a horse in the Almost Ideal Weights column is 15/1 or higher on the m/l, best wager is to play to place and show in equal amounts. Here the #1 horse just missed at 19/1.
Paco the Taco Man is another very logical play from WW. He paid $7.80 to win and the #4 horse ran 2nd. You will often find the top two picks both finishing in the money.
Introducing SNAPSHOT, v, 3.0!!
And our New SNAPSHOT! Feature has been expanded to include even more critical handicapping information! New Weight Pattern Category + Updated Bris Power Ratings,
We have now added how each horse ‘ranks’ in 10 very important handicapping areas. I want you to look at the section in the middle of the screen – this is pretty neat! You will see how this horse ranks, or compares, to others in the same race. Categories are POWER Ratings; Last Odds; Last Speed; 2nd Last Odds; 2nd Last Speed; Jockey/Trainer Win %; Early Speed; Late Speed; Class (LKELLY); Earnings Per Race.
A horse like Bourbon Society (the horse in the above Snapshot), as you can see, ranks rather well in most categories, suggesting that he will be competitive, and he did win this race. If you see a horse whose rankings are mostly 4th or 5th and worse, you know that you can likely eliminate that runner. But if he is 1st in a couple categories and a couple 2nds or 3rds in others, he is definitely an Exotics contender at least.
Power Rankings is just another feature to help you hone in on horses likely to win or finish in the exotics. You don’t have to look at it at all if you don’t want to – the picks the WW Handicapping Program provides will have you cashing often, but this option is there for you.
Other important Stats included in the Snapshot Feature:
Stats provided are Official Program # (SC);
Morning Line (ML); Overall win and in the money %;
the jockey and trainer overall win and in the money %;
Days between today’s race and the previous two races (which can clue you in to
a horse’s condition or lack thereof);
the last 3 finish positions; the lengths beaten in those races;
the Bris Power Ranking #s from the last 3 races (a rising or steady pattern suggests consistency);
# of workouts since last race;
Trainer Stats that are relevant to today’s race (these stats can be found under Trainer Stats2 which is a button on the top right of the screen).
These stats can be very helpful, especially in races where there is no Top Pick horse, or no pick at all. It can also help you, at a glance, find horses to include in your exotic wagers.
The trainer stats can be especially significant when they show a positive ROI in a category relevant to today’s race.
For example, again referring to the Snapshot picture above, you can see that the jockey and trainer both finish in the money close to 50% of the time. Also note that the Trainer Stats at the bottom of the screen show that this trainer has @ a 51% itm average with ‘3rd off a layoff’ runners
Take advantage of this feature. You will not find so much critical handicapping info. compressed into one small space anywhere else.
Specializing Pays Off
Some of the most successful handicappers out there are ‘niche’ handicappers — players who have found a ‘specialty’, so to speak, that most fans are unaware of. And a player can have several niches that he follows. My friend George Adams specializes in trainer patterns and weight, and he nabs an inordinate number of solid priced win and place horses. So if you discover a niche that proves successful over the long run, you can confidently wager on runners who the rest of the crowd may totally ignore.” Andy Beyer in My $50,000 Year at the Races
And what you have with Weight Watchers is indeed a ‘niche’ type of play. Because most players totally ignore the weight factor, you will be cashing in on these weight angles, often at an overlaid price.
Priced right at just $97.50, you will find Weight Watchers a welcome addition to your handicapping arsenal.
Call us at 1-800-696-0067 or go to our website.
