What are the odds that one of the Bob Baffert runners will NOT be part of the Exacta in this year’s Kentucky Derby?
Bottom Line: Not Good!
Line-Maker Levine Derby (that’s really his name!) for years has had an admirable record at predicting post time odds in big Stakes races including the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup. At this point (March 24) he has Baffert’s pair, Game Winner & Improbable, at 8/5 and 2/1 respectively.
We asked him what the chances were that neither would hit the Exacta:
‘Low’, Levine tells us.
‘Of course, we’re talking the Derby here, where 19 or 20 horses will be running, and post position and early running position are critical. If this were a 10-horse 3&up Stakes I could predict much more accurately. On the otherhand, Baffert employs the best jocks on the planet, and if you study the types of breaks from the gate Baffert runners have gotten over the years, very, very seldom is one of his horses not well-positioned early.
‘So, assuming both Game Winner and Improbable are starters, I make give it an 86% probability that at least one of these horses will hit the Exacta.’
So what’s a price-seeker to do?, we asked.
‘Well, probably avoid putting too much money into this race. Of course, you could hit a 500-foot home run if neither of Baffert’s runners hit the Exacta, or Trifecta, or Superfecta, but you would likely have to spread pretty deeply (meaning a big $$ ticket) to realize that dream.
‘To be honest, there will be much greater value on the undercard on Derby Day. That’s where I always concentrate the majority of my wagering – I’ve done very well the last two years (after blanking three years ago), and am very much looking forward to May 4.’
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